The Great F1 Driver Market

The first major driver change for next year’s Formula one season has been confirmed, with Lewis Hamilton leaving McLaren for Mercedes. BBC chief analyst Eddie Jordan first revealed rumours about the potential move at the beginning of September, which was met with scepticism and confusion by many F1 fans. However, the move has now been confirmed, and in doing so has brought with it other changes influencing other teams. McLaren have brought in Sergio Perez from Sauber to replace Hamilton, and Michael Schumacher is now without a drive for next year, whilst it being unclear whether he will retire again or to pursue a race seat with another team.

There is no doubt that McLaren have the faster car at the moment, and the chances are that they will have a fast car again next season. So why has Hamilton decided to move when he ‘just wants to win’? Money and sponsors have played a big part in the deal with Mercedes being able to offer him more money and greater personal sponsor freedom so he can top up his earnings, whilst making a bigger brand of himself. This is what his XIX Entertainment management team would want as they would turn Hamilton into his own brand rather than be stuck with McLaren’s sponsors and be associated with the team instead. This would also bring a lot of money into XIX as they would take a substantial percentage of his earnings, so from their point of view Mercedes was the team to go for. Financially, it makes sense, but race performance is different. With the current cars, Hamilton would struggle to get podiums, let alone wins, unlike the McLaren where he already has 3 wins this season. Mercedes have had a mixed season; they got their first win since 1955 in China, but have mostly been in the bottom half of the top 10 for the rest of it, which is not where Hamilton would want to be. To satisfy Hamilton’s desire to win races, Mercedes need to improve and now is the perfect time. Hamilton has been promised #1 priority in the team, so the car will be built around him and will be made to suit him best which he hasn’t been able to get entirely from McLaren due to team mates such as Alonso and Button. Mercedes could also benefit from having a driver suited to the car. Since coming back into Formula One, Mercedes have had Schumacher, which was good for publicity and selling merchandise, but it was never a real long term option, so they wouldn’t have entirely based the car around him or Rosberg, as he would be leaving and a new driver would come in. This is Mercedes first chance to focus on the long term success, now they have a stable, long term driver line-up, and team principle Ross Brawn knows what it takes after achieving a similar feat with Schumacher at Ferrari. Initially, McLaren should have the upper hand over Mercedes, but with a wave of new technical regulations coming in 2014, and Mercedes long term focus, who knows where they will be this time in two years. Hamilton will be hoping they’ve stepped up to prove his gamble right.

With this comes many other driver changes, as McLaren needed to act quickly to get a replacement for Hamilton after initially stating they had no ‘plan b’ if Hamilton left. McLaren snapped up Perez from Sauber who has had a fantastic season so far, challenging for wins and gaining 3 podiums this year in a midfield car. Perez has been part of the Ferrari driver programme for the past few years, so earlier in the year it was expected that he would replace Felipe Massa at Ferrari next season, but this was dismissed by Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo, claiming that Perez didn’t have enough experience. This combined with Perez stating that being part of the Ferrari programme didn’t restrict what team he drives for meant McLaren were keen to sign him up to replace Hamilton. This would satisfy both McLaren and Ferrari as it means McLaren have a highly skilled driver coming with the benefit of extra sponsors, whilst Ferrari can sit back and let him gain the top team experience he needs. Once Perez is doing well and consistently challenging for wins and championships, I feel Ferrari could easily take him back. Ferrari is the team Perez would most want to drive for, especially being part of their driver programme, so when Ferrari say the word, Perez will join.

This still leaves Sauber with a spare seat and Schumacher without a drive. Peter Sauber said if Schumacher ever became available then he would try to sign him ‘immediately’. This means that if Schumacher decides to stay in F1, there will almost certainly be a space for him. Unfortunately for him, there is no space in the top teams for him with Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes and Lotus having full driver line ups. There is Ferrari, but a Ferrari ‘spokesman’ said there is more chance of them signing Alberto Ascari than there is of signing Schumacher. This means the best team Schumacher could get into would be Sauber, but then there is the question of whether he wants to risk his reputation further by racing for a lower team. He has already arguably damaged his legacy already by coming out of retirement with Mercedes, so carrying on at an even lower team would no doubt damage it further. However, there could be a solution: Schumacher has been tipped for a team management job, so he could maybe try and combine racing and management/ownership. Schumacher has earned quite a bit of money in his time in F1, so he could quite easily buy a stake in a team (HRT for example) to become a team owner and be one of the drivers himself. A similar idea was proposed by Jacques Villeneuve with Stefan GP, but they didn’t make it to the grid. A Schumacher owned and branded team with him racing would bring floods of sponsorship money and an instant fan base due to his contacts, sponsors and fans, as well as receiving good coverage. The money coming in could transform a small team, and could send them up the grid, making it a success and repairing some of Schumacher’s damaged reputation.

With all the fuss about driver line-ups flooding round the paddock, it could be said that the main winners out of it will be Red Bull. They sorted out their driver line-up months ago so they can spend this crucial time of the season focusing on what matters, the championship. The other teams may be doing well, but they have been focusing efforts on sorting out drivers which could be pivotal in this year’s closely fought championship.